Watts & Associates

“Housing Market May Be on Rebound at Last”

steve — Fri, 18 May 2012 22:54:54 +0000

Housing market may be on rebound at last

New data show price declines easing in big cities, sales of new homes improving nationally and foreclosures in California dropping to levels not seen since 2007.

http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-housing-forecast-20120425,0,3386170.story

By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles Times
April 25, 2012, 1:32 a.m.

The housing market’s long, cold winter may finally be heading into a springtime thaw.

New data show price declines easing in big cities, sales of new homes improving nationally and foreclosures in California dropping to levels not seen since before the start of the credit crunch nearly five years ago.

The easing of foreclosures is seen as key by many economists, since the glut of these properties being sold at a discount has been a significant drag on home prices.

“The foreclosure market is turning into a drought, not a wave, and that has resulted in a lack of inventory,” said Sean O’Toole, chief executive of the firm ForeclosureRadar.com. “If it continues, it will likely mean that we’ve either seen a bottom — or have passed a bottom — in prices because of limited supply and still strong demand.”

Home prices remain depressed from their peak in 2007, when the median-priced home in Southern California sold for $505,000. The median price last month was $280,000.

The economy overall has been improving, however, with unemployment, retail sales, corporate profits and other measures showing steady if unspectacular gains. Housing has been one of the last holdouts, but analysts note that prices have stabilized and sales volume has been gaining.

“What are important are sales and inventory, and those are pointing in the right direction,” said Christopher Thornberg, a principal at Beacon Economics who was one of the early callers of the housing crash. “I would say that by the end of the year, they should translate into better prices.”

Thornberg added, “The recovery is here.”

Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, fell to 56,258 statewide in the first three months of the year, a 17.6% drop from the same period last year, DataQuick of San Diego reported Tuesday. That was the fewest number of default notices filed since the second quarter of 2007.

Banks still retain many foreclosed properties on their books, and some analysts have predicted that housing prices could weaken again if lenders dump these properties into the recovering market. But O’Toole and other analysts see that long-feared “second wave” as increasingly unlikely, pointing out that the banks would be acting against their own interests by undercutting prices through a fire sale.

“A few years back, there were some breathtakingly negative forecasts making the rounds regarding the foreclosure problem,” DataQuick President John Walsh said. “It’s not necessarily playing out the way some pundits thought.”

Low interest rates and the availability of bargain-priced properties are drawing more buyers into the market.

Bobbie Dunlap, 61, an office manager, said she recently bought a bank-owned home for $225,000 that she intends to fix up and rent out. The South Gate resident said she had to raise her price to beat competing bids on the two-bedroom property in Bellflower. She hopes that the rental income from the investment will provide her with a financial cushion when she stops working.

“It is in pretty good shape, but it still needs some extra work, of course,” Dunlap said.

Maryam Javadi of Palos Verdes Estates is hopeful that buyers will take the plunge this spring. She recently listed her 2,074-square-foot house at $950,000, and about 40 people showed up Sunday to check out the four-bedroom property, which has canyon views and sits near the end of a quiet cul-de-sac.

“Some people have been back to see it two or three times already,” Javadi said.

Betting on the rebound, investors made up a record share of buyers in Southern California during the first two months of the year, according to DataQuick. As more foreclosed homes in hard-hit neighborhoods are filled with renters, an increasing number of everyday buyers will grow interested in owning, said Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a New York housing research firm.

“This is not a robust recovery, but I feel confident that we are not sitting here lingering,” said Zelman, who predicts that home prices will end the year up about 1%. “There really is more meat to the bone.”

Other new housing data also point to a fledgling recovery.

The real estate website Zillow estimated that home values in Los Angeles hit a bottom in the first quarter as the median price flattened from February to March; several communities posted price increases, including Compton, Manhattan Beach and Santa Monica. Zillow’s is among several recent predictions that certain markets have put the worst behind them.

New-home sales nationally fell 7.1% in March from the previous month, the Commerce Department said Tuesday, but that was partly because it revised February sales figures up significantly. Even though the figure for March was the lowest since November, overall sales of new homes are up about 16% for the first three months of the year from the same period a year earlier, the Commerce Department said. The report helped boost the Dow Jones industrial average 74 points to 13,001.

That improvement means that new-home sales will probably be stronger than last year’s, which were the worst on record.

One of the most widely watched measures on home values, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index of 20 U.S. cities, showed price declines moderating from January to February. Prices fell 0.8% from January to February, and were down 3.5% from February 2011. Los Angeles fell 0.8% in February from the previous month, while San Francisco was down 0.7%. San Diego was slightly positive, up 0.2% from January.

Many economists brushed off the decline as the Case-Shiller numbers capture the traditionally slow months of January and December, as well as February, because they average three months’ worth of data. The index’s year-over-year decline in home values has also been steadily shrinking in recent months.

alejandro.lazo@latimes.com

Times staff writer Lauren Beale contributed to this report.
Copyright © 2012, Los Angeles Times

Foreclosure Sales Continue to Plummet

steve — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 00:30:39 +0000

For the second month in a row we’ve seen a dramatic drop in the number of properties sold at foreclosure, or “trustee sale”, auctions. Foreclosure sales in California are down 16.7 percent from February to March 2012 and down 53.1 percent from March a year ago. A total of 86,487 sales were scheduled to occur in California, but of those 80.0 percent postponed, and 10.6 percent were cancelled, leaving just 8,392 that were actually sold. Third parties, typically investors, purchased a record 38.6% of the properties that did sell in California.

Foreclosure starts rose in most states, with the largest increases occurring in Washington, California and Nevada. This, at least temporarily, reverses a downward trend, but even with the increase the volume of new foreclosures remains significantly down year-over-year in all the states we cover.

The increase in foreclosure starts is especially interesting in Nevada. Bank foreclosures came to an almost complete halt there after the passage of Assembly Bill 284, which made significant changes to Nevada’s foreclosure laws. The increase this month is directly attributable to new foreclosure starts by Fannie Mae, which is one of very few lenders to have filed any new foreclosures in Nevada since September 2011. Even with the increase by Fannie Mae it is still homeowner associations that are initiating the vast majority of foreclosures in Nevada.

California January Home Sales

steve — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 23:40:47 +0000

An estimated 28,111 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That was down 25.5 percent from 37,734 in December, and up 1.5 percent from 27,706 for January 2011. A decline from December to January is normal for the season. On a year-over-year basis sales have increased the past six months. California sales for the month of January have varied from a low of 19,145 in 2008 to a high of 47,138 in 2004, while the average is 31,717. DataQuick’s statistics go back to 1988.

The median price paid for a home last month was $236,000, down 4.1 percent from $246,000 in December, and down 1.3 percent from $239,000 for January a year ago. The median has decreased on a year-over-year basis for the last 16 months. The bottom of the current cycle was $221,000 in April 2009, while the peak was $484,000 in early 2007.

Distressed property sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and “short sales” – continued to make up more than half of California’s resale market.

Of the existing homes sold last month, 34.5 percent were properties that had been foreclosed on during the past year. That was up from a revised 33.9 percent in December and down from 40.4 percent in January a year ago. The all-time high was in February 2009 at 58.5 percent.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 21.4 percent of resales last month. That was up from 19.6 percent in December and up from 18.7 percent in January 2011. Two years ago short sales made up an estimated 18.1 percent of the resale market.

The typical mortgage payment that home buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $893. That was the lowest since $882 in February 1999. Adjusted for inflation it was the lowest since at least 1988 .

DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts.

Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is high, but well below peak levels. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, down payment sizes are stable, and cash and non-owner occupied buying remain at or near record levels, DataQuick reported.

Media calls: Andrew LePage (916)456-7157 or alepage@dqnews.com

Source: DataQuick; DQNews.com

LA Times|Real Estate::Scheduled foreclosure auctions soar in California

bmeek — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 22:16:49 +0000

Scheduled foreclosure auctions soar in California.

Banks set the clock for forced sales of more than 26,000 homes in the state in November, a 63% increase from October. Overall foreclosure notices nationwide fell last month.

By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles TimesDecember 15, 2011

Banks in November scheduled more than 26,000 homes to be sold at California foreclosure auctions, a 63% increase from October and a sign that a surge in discounted, bank-owned properties is on track to hit the market next year.

The uptick in scheduled auctions follows an increase last summer in homes entering the foreclosure process by receiving default notices and was largely driven by Bank of America. It appears that many of those homes are now quickly working their way through the process, said Daren Blomquist, a spokesman for RealtyTrac of Irvine, a data tracker that published the November data.

The increase played out nationally, hitting a nine-month high, even as overall foreclosure notices declined last month. Among the states, California had the biggest month-over-month increase in scheduled auctions, followed by Washington, 56%; Ohio, 53%; New Jersey, 44%; and New York, 38%.

“November’s numbers suggest a new set of incoming foreclosure waves, many of which may roll into the market as [foreclosures] or short sales sometime early next year,” said James Saccacio, co-founder and chief executive of RealtyTrac.

Nationally, overall foreclosure filings on U.S. properties — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — totaled 224,394 in November, down 3% from October and off 14% from November 2010. About 1 in 579 homes received a foreclosure filing last month, by RealtyTrac’s tally.

Celia Chen, a housing economist with Moody’s Analytics, said she expected the number of foreclosures on banks’ books to rise next year and for the number of discounted foreclosures on the market to remain elevated. That will continue to put pressure on home prices.

“The pace of sales will remain very slow, so the share of distressed sales is going to rise most likely through the middle of next year, and this will cause home prices to fall,” Chen said. “Job growth is still weak, and then it is still a bit difficult to get those low rates. Lenders, in general, are still being pretty careful about who they write a mortgage for.”

The West’s Foreclosure Belt continued to be the hardest hit region in the nation. Nevada posted the highest foreclosure rate in the nation for the 59th month in a row, despite a decline in foreclosure activity because of a new law cracking down on those doing the foreclosing. California had the second-highest rate and Arizona the third in November.

California cities accounted for nine of the 10 metro areas with the highest foreclosure rates. Las Vegas was the only city outside of California in the top 10, coming in at No. 6. Stockton posted the nation’s highest foreclosure rate for the second month in a row, followed by Modesto and Fresno.

In California, total foreclosure activity was up 15% from October and up 11% from November 2010. The number of homes entering foreclosure continued at an elevated level last month, down just 1% from October and up 12% from November 2010. Notices of trustee sales, or scheduled auctions, jumped 63% month over month and 14% over November 2010. Bank repossessions declined 15% from the previous month and were up 1% from the same month last year.

The uptick in California filings was driven by the auction notices. When such a notice is filed at a county recorder’s office, a home can be sold within 21 days.

alejandro.lazo@latimes.com

Home prices dip in September, ending five straight months of gains

bmeek — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 22:45:19 +0000

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index of 20 cities for September showed declines of 0.6% from August and 3.6% from September 2010.

By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles TimesNovember 30, 2011

Home prices in the nation’s largest cities fell in September, a widely followed index showed, underscoring the unrelenting weakness in the housing market that could last well into next year.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index of 20 American cities, a key measure that is closely watched by economists, declined 0.6% from August to September and 3.6% from September 2010. The drop ended five months of month-over-month gains.

Analysts had expected a decline in prices given the end of the busy home-shopping season. Nevertheless, the reversal of home-price gains casts a cloud over recent data that had shown some improvement in housing, such as increased builder confidence and an uptick in building starts. With the fresh home-price data released Tuesday, several analysts noted that a recovery remains out of sight this year.

“Any chance for a sustained recovery will probably need a stronger economy,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee.

Home prices, as measured by the 20-city index, are 2% above their bottom hit in April 2009 during the depths of the financial crisis. Prices briefly dipped below that threshold in March but began gaining ground again as the spring and summer selling seasons pushed prices up.

New foreclosure actions and weak demand probably will drive prices down an additional 5% to 10%, and perhaps more, if the economy slips into a double-dip recession, economists Patrick Newport and Michelle Valverde wrote in a research note Tuesday. The two, who track the U.S. economy for consulting firm IHS Global Insight, said the large number of people who remain behind on their mortgages and the high percentage of American homeowners who owe more on their properties than they are worth will also be a major drag on housing for the foreseeable future.

“Add to this the current high unemployment and underemployment rates, one gets a recipe for further price declines,” the economists wrote. “Should the economy slip into a recession … the unemployment rate will climb, driving foreclosures up and leading to an even larger drop in home prices.”

Even if prices begin to show some strength next year, they will probably continue to muddle along as foreclosures continue to cycle through the market, said Paul Diggle, property economist for Capital Economics.

“Even when prices do reach their trough, which could be next year, a continued influx of foreclosed and vacant properties onto the market will prevent the sharp bounce back that valuations might suggest is due,” he wrote in a note.

In a speech Tuesday at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen called for more housing stimulus.

“A sharp downturn in housing was at the core of the previous recession, and this sector continues to weigh on the recovery,” she said. “I see a strong case for additional policies to foster more rapid recovery in the housing sector.”

All of the California cities in the index posted price declines from August. Los Angeles and San Diego were down 0.8%, and San Francisco fell 1.5%.

Despite the declines, home prices in California cities measured by the index are comparatively healthy despite the state’s high unemployment rate. The markets tracked by the index are close to key job centers such as Hollywood and Silicon Valley and are also near the ocean, where overbuilding was relatively restrained.

The index does not track prices in California’s Central Valley or the Inland Empire, where housing is still weak and the foreclosure rates of many cities are among the nation’s highest.

Three U.S. cities posted new crisis lows in September, according to the Case-Shiller index. Both Atlanta and Phoenix joined Las Vegas in plumbing fresh depths. While Phoenix home prices are almost back to their January 2000 levels, those in Atlanta and Las Vegas have fallen below that benchmark.

A separate index by S&P/Case-Shiller measuring national home prices ticked up 0.1% from the second quarter, putting home prices at the same level they were at in the third quarter of 2003. The national index posted a year-over-year decline of 3.9%, which was better than the 5.8% drop in the second quarter.

The news that home prices had renewed their decline came as CoreLogic, a Santa Ana research firm that tracks the mortgage market, reported that more than 1 in 5 American home mortgages were underwater.

An estimated 10.7-million households, or 22.1% of all homes with mortgages, had more debt on the properties than they were worth in the third quarter, according to CoreLogic. This is a slight decline from the 10.9 million properties that were underwater in the second quarter.

“Although slightly down, negative equity remains very high and renders many borrowers vulnerable when negative economic shocks occur, such as job loss or illness,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Mark Fleming said. “The nearly $700-billion mortgage debt overhang has touched many corners of the market, and this overhang is holding back the recovery of the housing market and broader economy.”

Nevada led all states with 58% of mortgaged homes underwater, followed by Arizona, 47%; Florida, 44%; Michigan, 35%; and Georgia, 30%. This was the first quarter that Georgia made the top five, ousting California, which had been among the top spots since CoreLogic began tracking the data in 2009.

In the Los Angeles metropolitan area, 353,427 homes, or 23% of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity at the end of the third quarter, a decline from 356,677. The number of homes with negative equity can decline when foreclosures increase because the repossession process extinguishes underwater loans.

alejandro.lazo@latimes.com

Click HERE to read the original article.

Home Prices Weaken as the Third Quarter of 2011 Ends

bmeek — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 23:19:02 +0000

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

New York, November 29, 2011 – Data through September 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that nationally home prices did not register a significant change in the third quarter of 2011, with the U.S. National Home Price Index up by only 0.1% from its second quarter level. The national index posted an annual decline of 3.9%, an improvement over the 5.8% decline posted in the second quarter. Nationally, home prices are back to their first quarter of 2003 levels.

Click HERE for the full article…

Housing Prices Fell 3.9 Percent in 2011, Back to 2003 Levels

bmeek — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 22:13:32 +0000

Home prices showed little change in the third quarter nationally, edging up 0.1 percent from the prior period, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. Overall, home prices are back to their first quarter of 2003 levels. Economists expected little change in the…

via Housing Prices Fell 3.9 Percent in 2011, Back to 2003 Levels.

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ObamaCare Flatlines: ObamaCare Texas Home Sales – Clobbers Middle-Class Americans

bmeek — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 23:58:12 +0000

ObamaCare Flatlines: ObamaCare Taxes Home Sales – Clobbers Middle-Class Americans

Posted April 8, 2010

“I can make a firm pledge. Under my plan, no family making less than $250,000 a year will see any form of tax increase. Not your income tax, not your payroll tax, not your capital gains taxes, not any of your taxes,”
President Obama, September 12, 2008

Beginning January 1, 2013, ObamaCare imposes a 3.8% Medicare tax on unearned income of “high-income” taxpayers which could apply to proceeds from the sale of single family homes, townhouses, co-ops, condominiums, and even rental income, depending on your individual circumstances and any capital gains tax exclusions. Importantly, the “high income” thresholds are not indexed for inflation so will reach increasing numbers of middle-class taxpayers over time.

In February 2010, 5.02 million homes were sold, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). On any given day, the sale of a house, townhome, condominium, co-op, or income from a rental property could slam middle-income families with a new tax they can’t afford.

This new ObamaCare tax is the first time the government will apply a 3.8 percent tax on unearned income. This new tax on home sales and unearned income and other Medicare taxes raise taxes more than $210 billion to pay for ObamaCare. The National Association of Realtors called this new Medicare tax on unearned income “destructive” and “ill-advised” and warned it would hurt job creation.

Originally posted by http://www.gop.gov

Valmonte Market Update – September 2011

bmeek — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 19:06:37 +0000

Click to Download Valmonte Market Statistics

Valmonte Residents,

We hope all is well with you and your family. The month of August saw the 3rd largest drop in the stock market. The Global markets are also retreating and the United States Financial markets were dropped from a triple A rating to a double A rating. Many of us formulate our beliefs and opinions on what the future holds based on the global news, the U.S. debt, unemployment rates and the instability of the financial sector. What have remained stable are the amazing interest rates for home purchases. Yes, home values have dropped approximately 25%-30% here in the South Bay, some areas less and some a bit more, but overall values have never been more affordable than in the past 8 years.

The statistics I am providing you are the most recent active, in escrow & sold home market activity for Valmonte in 2011. We are the owners of Watts & Associates and personally specialize in Valmonte as one of our target areas for home sellers and buyers. We have been blessed to sell more homes in Valmonte than any other real estate agents in the past 15 years.

If we can be of assistance to you, your family or friends regarding any of your real estate needs please do not hesitate to contact us.

Sincerely,

Steve and Ceci Watts

Beautiful Lunada Bay – Not on the MLS!

bmeek — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 22:10:33 +0000

Magnificent upcoming Lunada Bay listing with over 4,500 SqFt of living space on a near 17,000 SqFt lot with sweeping ocean views. Could you get use to working out every morning to this view???